Pavel Gubarev: what are the prospects in the civil war in Donbass?

According to the estimates of different people well-informed about the situation of the military conflict of the DPR –LPR and Ukraine, the events can develop in accordance with two scenarios: military or political (peaceful) settlement.
The military scenario has several options:
1. Military defeat of Ukraine. It is unlikely in the short term owing to significant mobilization potential, big reserves of military equipment and presence of political will reinforced by public opinion.
2. Military defeat of DPR –LPR. It is unlikely in the short-term and medium-term outlook dues to high motivation of the militiamen growing with each murdered child or elderly person. Reserves of military equipment are significant, albeit they do not match the enemy’s resources. Political will and public opinion are also in favour of the victory exclusively.
3. “freezing” of the conflict or its conversion into a lukewarm conflict of Sector Gaza type.
Political (peaceful) settlement also has several options:
1. Ukraine’s backdown and recognition of independence of Donbass. Development of Donbass in accordance with the Transnistrian scenario (self-proclaimed status or the status of partially recognized state formation: recognized by Russia and, probably, de facto by Ukraine (in the sphere of trade, etc.), though never de jure).
2. Recognition of the “special status” of Donbass with the preservation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine (minus the Crimea). The “special status” may be granted in the framework of a confederation or federation (less likely).
There is one more option. It is a military coup, carried out by territorial battalions and nationalists with the support of certain representatives of the elite with toppling of Poroshenko and de-legitimization of Kiev authorities. As a result a part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will cease to obey Kiev’s orders and the conflicting parties of the civil war will grade up to each other. Eventually the Armed Forces of Novorossiya become the most powerful force of the war with all the ensuing consequences. As one of Kiev political analysts put it, “complete dismantling of Ukrainian statehood” might take place.
Involvement of Russia into the conflict is still very unlikely.