Gas talks

Poroshenko had a phone conversation with Merkel. They discussed the situation in Donbass and the gas issue.

The solution in regard to gas had not yet been found. To be more exact, Germany, by all appearances, had already made it, but is attempting to make others pay for the gas for Ukraine. The debt of 3.1 bln and the advance payment for the new gas will have to be paid at the expense of Europe’s credit to Ukraine. In this sense Putin, when he talked about the need “to provide a shoulder to rest on”, urges the Europeans to take the responsibility for what they have created.

Merkel is trying to distribute this sum between European countries, and as such expenditures are not provisioned by the budget of the EU, she will try to shuffle the burden to the tax-payers. She will probably do it by means of insignificant rise of gas prices, which nevertheless will cause discontent. That is why she needs the conformal decision of the entire European Union, in order to share this sum among the members.

5 bln is not a very significant sum for Europe, but the situation is such that this credit is patently unrecoverable. In fact, Europe will simply have to pay for Ukrainian theft from its own purse. Nevertheless, winter is coming, and they have to find a way out. Further delay is out of the question.

Yesterday Ukraine started the withdrawal of gas from underground storage facilities, which directly threaten the transit, and now the solution of the problem cannot be postponed.

Europe has got into an odd situation, which is quite new for it. It managed to capture Ukrainian market and cleanse it of Russian participation. This is an established fact and the obvious victory. Ukrainian government opened all the doors in front of Europe and now it has to make the last step: to launch all the signed agreements on association. And at that Europe had acquired such a scoop at a price of catastrophic risks for its security of energy supply. That is why it finds itself in such a situation for the first time: before the expansion of Europe was not followed by such complicated problems.

Having taken the risks upon itself, Europe significantly lowers the benefits of gaining the monopoly for such an attractive market, as Ukraine. If we add the risks of establishment of an unstable state with the great probability if its disintegration, it is quite possible, that the benefits of the victory will be totally annihilated by the consequences of such developments. This is a subject for some consideration.

The problem is that nothing can be undone, and they will have to support the already openly Nazi regime, driving themselves deeper into the dead end. They will be no longer able to solve their problems at Russia’s expense – the limit, beyond which Russia cannot accept new compromises and concessions, had been reached.

That is why the decision in regard to gas requires so much effort. Merkel is well aware of the fact that it is not the matter of one credit only, that having paid for Ukraine this time, she will have to pay for it repeatedly in the future, without any hopes for another solution.

El Murid, Russian blogger

http://el-murid.livejournal.com/2049710.html