The fatal game of mobilization: the stakes grow

The President and the Ministry of Defense present lively reports of hitting the mobilization targets. Nevertheless here and there the videos of local protests pop up. People do not want to march to their graves.

Kiev tries to compete with the Moscow construction sites and provide the conscripts with the stimulus to join the Army. The material stimulus. Even the price-lists have already been published. There are still many questions to be answered. The Chief of Staff, who had surprised the community by his announcement that there is no regular Russian Army in the East, says that the funds have already been allotted for it in the budget.  “Today the money are in the budget of the Ministry of Defense  I confirm that this should become the motivation factor sufficient for the growth of the number of willing to join the Army, perhaps, even volunteers”, said Viktor Muzhenko on January 29. However, does it mean that the money was budgeted as early as in December of the last year? If we are short of funds, where will they get money? Either from our foreign partners, or having switched on the printer. Yatsenyuk claims that international loans are not spent on the Army. That leaves only the printer. Then Hryvnia will become a stone. Not in the sense of firmness. It will drop like a stone. And it will drop on our heads, also like a stone.  Next. How are they going to calculate the number of burnt tanks, “Grads” and planes? The Ministry of Defense admits that it does not know yet. Will a photo in Instagram be considered evidence? Will they take the troopers’ word for it? The commanders will distribute the money. That means the heroes of generals will divide the money among themselves. Why peddle? And the same “heroic” generals recently said that the Donetsk airport was of no importance. They why all the high-strung rhetoric about “Ukrainian Stalingrad”? What did hundreds of men from both sides die for? That was one more step towards the failure of the mobilization. Moreover, the General Stuff in controversy to the entire propaganda machine claims that regular Russian troops do not take part in the fighting in Donbass. What should the troopers die for then, for the generals? This widely shared statement of Muzhenko will most probably play its role in the protests against Poroshenko.

In spite of the reports about the achievements of mobilization a series of factors makes one doubt their truthfulness, namely, the events in Western Ukraine and in the villages of Bessarabia. Hungarian Jobbik party already claimed that in Transcarpathian region twice bigger per cent of the population is being mobilized than in other regions.  It says that the same is true about the areas of compact settlement of Bulgarians, Poles, and other national minorities.  In the Odessa region manifestations against mobilization are in full swing; notices are being burnt and chief enlistment officers driven away. Such unrest is typical for Bulgarian and Gagauz villages.  Perhaps the population of the settlements where ethnic minorities are prominent will receive significant support from Romania, Poland, and Hungary. In case of the implementation of the most negative scenario of the breakdown of Ukraine these countries will have loyalty of the local population.

And what is most important: those who are against mobilization do not have much time left. By March 3the lists of the absconding will be passed to the police. And then they will face search, arrest and delivery to the enlistment offices. They will not be able to protest after that date. The President insists on the change of the order of crossing the borders by the citizens who are entitled to the mobilization. That is, all men aged from 18 up to 60. Yatsenyuk’s talking suit Anton Herashchenko suggests suing for anti-mobilization calls, including the appeals made in social networks. This will inevitably pepper up protest sentiments.

And meanwhile it seems there are people interested in using of these sentiments against President Poroshenko. Whereas Aleksandr Turchinov is forming the parallel power-enforcing bodies (which is nevertheless acting in tune with Yatsenyuks’ government), Dmitriy Yarosh threatens to form the alternative General Staff. This is quite close to the introduction of the alternative President and parallel Ukraine thanks to the ability of the Governor of Dnepropetrovsk.